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Health care for people with dementia in 2030 - results of a multidisciplinary scenario process

: Vollmar, H.C.; Goluchowicz, K.; Beckert, B.; Dönitz, E.; Bartholomeyczik, S.; Ostermann, T.; Boustani, M.; Buscher, I.


Health policy 114 (2014), Nr.2-3, S.254-262
ISSN: 0168-8510
ISSN: 1872-6054
Fraunhofer ISI ()
Alzheimer's disease; Dementia; foresight; scenario approach; health services research

Background: Despite extensive research funding in the field of dementia, deficits in the quality of dementia care still exist. In order to project different alternative futures of health care for people with dementia (PwD) in Germany, we have initiated a multidisciplinary scenario process (Sce-Dem).
Methods: For the scenario process we used a 6-step approach: (1) identification of relevant areas of influences via literature review and internet search, (2) systematic collection of relevant influence factors and their future projections via literature review, brainstorming and consensus workshops, (3) discussion and validation of the identified key factors in a workshop with 52 multidisciplinary, experts, to clarify their characteristics and future projections, (4) combining the relevant key factors with alternative projections in a so-called consistency matrix to estimate the consistency between the selected projections, (5) generating consistent combinations of projecti ons using software, and (6) writing scenario stories and descriptions based on the most consistent and different combinations.
Results: As a result of the scenario process, five consistent scenarios were developed. Two of these could be described as dark scenarios with very poor prospects. A third one has been referred to as "well-meant, but badly done". Two scenarios entail mostly positive aspects but one of them has a tendency towards, a "health control" state.
Conclusion: The more positive scenarios provide a framework for determining relevant actions in research, society, and politics.