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2012
Conference Paper
Titel
Susceptibility and vulnerability of urban buildings and infrastructure against terroristic threats from qualitative and quantitative risk analyses
Abstract
The assessment of future terroristic threats of urban buildings and infrastructure is an important issue when planning new or redesigning urban built environments, like squares and quarters. We show how these threats can be analyzed in a systematic way. The qualitative or quantitative hazard and risk analysis of single buildings or infrastructure forms the basis. It consists of the analysis of events, scenarios, hazards, damage, frequency of events, exposure of personnel and risk, including options for risk visualization and risk assessment. We show which steps can be fulfilled when using empirical data of past terroristic events. For quantitative analysis we restrict ourselves explosive, chemical and biological events. We present and discuss single and normalized combinations of multiple risk analysis quantities that can be used to measure averaged susceptibility and vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure in the context of urban planning. For instance, for the q ualitative assessment of susceptibility the frequency of historic threat events on certain building types can be used, for the quantitative assessment of vulnerability the local expected damage in case of an event without knowing the exact position of the source of threat. We show that for the assessment of terroristic threats in urban environment also averaged risk quantities are of importance. The empirical and the quantitative approach incorporate qualitative local scaling factors, e.g. for social cohesion, accessibility or neighborhood awareness. We present the formalism allowing us to discuss the input data necessary for a stepwise refined analysis, which can be aligned with the urban planning process.