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Results of the techno-economic analysis of the R&D and transport policy packages for the time horizons 2020 and 2050

Deliverable D 4.1. GHG-TransPoRD. Reducing Greenhouse-gas Emissions of Transport Beyond 2020: Linking R&D, Transport Policies and Reduction Targets; Grant Agreement Number: 233828. Contract No: TCS8-GA-2009-233828
: Schade, Wolfgang

Brussels: European Commission, 2012, 204 S.
Fraunhofer ISI ()

This report builds on the results presented in D2.1, the GHG reduction potentials of single measures, and in D3.1, the cost assessment of the single measures. The activities described by the report include the composition of the single measures into policy packages defining six distinct scenarios and the model-based assessment of these scenarios by an integrated assessment tool box consisting of four models covering different spatial scales. The energy system is considered at the global scale by the POLES model; the European transport system is assessed by the ASTRA model, which also provides capabilities for economic analyses, and the TREMOVE model. To cover the urban level the MARS model is applied for the Leeds case study. Three models are applied for scenario simulations until 2050, ASTRA, MARS and POLES, while TREMOVE runs until 2030.
The added value of applying these integrated assessment models for scenario analysis is to consider both the interaction between different measures, let it be synergies or counteracting effects, and the indirect effects i.e. effects that occur outside the transport system though the measures are planned for and implemented within the transport system. Examples of such indirect effects would be influences on the government budget, employment or growth and competitiveness. The scenario development took place in an iterative manner such that first technological measures were included, than policy measures and behavioural change and finally ambitious regulations. Preliminary results of draft scenarios have been presented at the 4th workshop . Taking the stakeholder feedback at the workshop into account the scenarios have been refined, tested and the final scenario results have been presented at the final conference and are reported in this deliverable.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) both emphasize the requirement for a peaking of GHG emissions during the current decade until 2020 to limit global warming to 2-degrees. This means early reductions of GHG emissions from European transport will be preferential compared with later reductions. The basic outcome of our scenario is that in the next two decades only road mode will be able to contribute both significant and early GHG reductions. The other modes will mainly rely on operational measures to reduce their GHG emissions during that period due to slow fleet turnover. Driver of these GHG reductions is massive introduction of efficiency technology of road vehicles either driven by climate mitigation awareness of the automotive industry or by setting of strict CO2 emission standards through European legislation as well as similar legislation on other important automotive markets e.g. US, Japan, China.
Nevertheless, it must be ensured that the medium-term efficiency gains of conventional cars do not crowd out the market for EVs and FCEVs as these are essential for the long-term GHG reductions. Both should get onto their learning curve, e.g. by selling them to early adopter markets, which for EVs could be specific fleet operators, instead of selling them to the mass consumer market at market entry. Such specific markets should be considered when designing policies to foster alternative fuel vehicles.
Efficiency improvements of road transport in climate mitigation scenarios will be much faster than increase of energy prices. Thus in all scenarios that do not counterbalance efficiency gains by increasing other transport cost remarkable rebound effects have been found causing a strong modal-shift towards road transport. Such a rebound effect cannibalises a significant part of GHG savings, such that counterbalancing measures need to be taken. Our scenarios considered the increase of fuel duties and urban road charging. Increasing road transport taxes and tolls provides the co-benefit that government revenues from the transport sector are stabilised, which in turn is also relevant to fund infrastructure and operation within the transport sector e.g. for public transport.
In summary, it was found that four key aspects need to be considered to fulfil the major target of the European Transport White Paper of 2011 of reducing GHG emissions of transport by -60% until 2050:
· Technological change, i.e. efficiency and alternative energy for transport,
· Autonomous behavioural change, i.e. climate change awareness, multi-modality, new life style products (e.g. pedelecs) and re-urbanisation in green cities,
· Policies setting incentives for both technological and behavioural change and
· Governmental and societal coherence of transport taxation and revenues.