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Modeling and Calibration of Large Scale System Dynamics Models: The Case of the ASTRA Model

: Schade, W.; Krail, M.

Volltext (449 KByte; PDF; )

Größler, A. ; System Dynamics Society, Albany:
24th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society : July 23-27, 2006, Nijmegen
ISBN: 978-0-9745329-5-0
Paper SCHAD165, 17 S.
International Conference of the System Dynamics Society <24, 2006, Nijmegen>
Konferenzbeitrag, Elektronische Publikation
Fraunhofer ISI ()
National model; Calibration; Transport policy; ASTRA; Multi-regional-multi-sectoral

Though the size of System Dynamics models should be compact focusing on the main feedback loops determining system behavior one kind of model can become quite large: multi-national, multi-sectoral spatially differentiated models. The paper briefly presents such a model called ASTRA (=Assessment of Transport Strategies), which is developed in several versions over the past eight years.
The purpose of the paper is to describe an approach how such a system dynamics model despite its size can be calibrated to make it applicable for Europeanwide policy analysis, of transport policies. The approach is designed as a sequential process involving an automated tool combining a C++-coded steering programme with the Vensim® optimizer to enable calibration of large numbers of similar equations that only differ by their parameterization.