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2003
Presentation
Titel
Simulation models for population level risk assessment
Titel Supplements
Presentation held at the Workshop on Probabilistic Assessment Methods for Risk Analysis in the Framework of PPP Authorisation 2003, Berlin
Abstract
Why population level risk assessment? - We want to protect (local) populations in the field, effects on individuals can often be accepted. Why modelling? - Lower tier studies usually focus on individual level endpoints; - the most sensitive life history trait must not be the most important one for the population; - direct measurement of effects on populations can rarely be done at lower tiers, and even in higher tiers not for all taxa; - Higher tier studies can usually be conducted only for one or a few scenarios (e.g. application pattern, environmental conditions...). Summary: Added value of population modelling - Additional line of evidence for conclusions based on lab or field experiments or monitoring studies (Extrapolation from effects on life cycle traits on population growth rate; Application of model ecosystem data to other environmental conditions; Prediction of response over longer time periods); - Identify data gaps (e. g. data for important life stages); - Screening tool (e.g. identify critical species based on their ecology).