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Methodische Probleme - ein Grund zum Verbleib im Status-Quo-Trenddenken

 
: Jochem, E.

Härter, M.; Siefen, H. ; Gesellschaft für Energiewissenschaft und Energiepolitik e.V. -GEE-:
Einstieg in den Ausstieg? Bestandsaufnahme zur Diskussion über einen Kernenergieausstieg in Westeuropa
Köln: Verlag TÜV Rheinland, 1989 (Schriftenreihe der Gesellschaft für Energiewissenschaft und Energiepolitik e.V)
ISBN: 3-88585-635-2
pp.111-124
German
Book Article
Fraunhofer ISI ()
cause of deviation; demand of electricity; econometric model; Fehlerursache; ökonometrisches Modell; Prognose; projection; rational use of energy; rationelle Energienutzung; Strombedarf; structural change; Strukturwandel; technical model; technisches Modell

Abstract
Two years after the nuclear accident of Tschernobyl the author tries to evaluate those electricity demand projections and their economic impact for the case of phasing out nuclear energy in West Germany. Differences of the projected electricity demand can be explained by several factors. Some projections assume nether low electricity price elasticities, even in the long term. Some do not assume structural changes in industry or the space heating sector in addition to the reference change of those structures. As the time horizon of technical potentials of rational electricity use is ranging to not more than 20 to 25 years, technical models underestimate the econometric models are more reliable in many branches and applications. Finally, individual behaviour of the analysts influence the projections in several aspects.

: http://publica.fraunhofer.de/documents/PX-23819.html