From Primary to Final Energy Consumption - Analysing Structural and Efficiency Changes on the Energy Supply Side

A methodology for analyzing changes in Total Primary Energy Consumption (TPC) and the ratio of Total Primary to Total Final Energy Consumption (TFC) is presented using the principles of factor analysis. It allows one to separate influences of trade with transformation products, changes in structure of energy carriers, and changes in transformation structure and efficiency. The approach is applied to analyze West Germany's recent TPC changes and as a means to compare trends in TPC/TFC across a set of European countries. It therefore adds to the interpretation of widely used indicators such as primary and final energy intensity. Among others, the global influence of electricity and natural gas penetration, nuclear and CHP programs on TPC are consistently quantified and compared along with the import or export effects of transformation products. An evaluation of actual trends and the policy elements behind is therefore made possible.