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Where is the EU headed given its current climate policy? A stakeholder-driven model inter-comparison

: Nikas, Alexandros; Elia, Alessia; Boitier, Baptiste; Koasidis, Konstantinos; Doukas, Haris; Cassetti, Gabriele; Anger-Kraavi, Annela; Bui, Ha; Campagnolo, Lorenza; De Miglio, Rocco; Delpiazzo, Elisa; Fougeyrollas, Arnaud; Gambhir, Ajay; Gargiulo, Maurizio; Giarola, Sara; Grant, Neil; Hawkes, Adam; Herbst, Andrea; Köberle, Alexandre C.; Kolpakov, Andrey; Le Mouël, Pierre; McWilliams, Ben; Mittal, Shivika; Moreno, Jorge; Neuner, Felix; Perdana, Sigit; Peters, Glen P.; Plötz, Patrick; Rogelj, Joeri; Sognnæs, Ida; van de Ven, Dirk-Jan; Vielle, Marc; Zachmann, Georg; Zagamé, Paul; Chiodi, Alessandro

Fulltext urn:nbn:de:0011-n-6379022 (1.3 MByte PDF)
MD5 Fingerprint: 5777688ac5a323de3f2b9d8e91a139a3
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Created on: 9.7.2021

Science of the Total Environment 793 (2021), Art. 148549, 18 pp.
ISSN: 0048-9697
ISSN: 1879-1026
Journal Article, Electronic Publication
Fraunhofer ISI ()
europe; energy system models; Model inter-comparison; Stakeholder engagement; climate policy; Integrated assessment models

Recent calls to do climate policy research with, rather than for, stakeholders have been answered in nonmodellingscience. Notwithstanding progress in modelling literature, however, very little of the scenario spacetraces back to what stakeholders are ultimately concerned about. With a suite of eleven integrated assessment,energy system and sectoralmodels, we carry out amodel inter-comparison for the EU, the scenario logic and researchquestions of which have been formulated based on stakeholders' concerns. The output of this process is ascenario framework exploring where the region is headed rather than how to achieve its goals, extrapolating itscurrent policy efforts into the future. We find that Europe is currently on track to overperforming its pre-202040% target yet far from its newest ambition of 55% emissions cuts by 2030, as well as looking at a 1.0–2.35 GtCO2 emissions range in 2050. Aside from the importance of transport electrification, deployment levels of carboncapture and storage are found intertwined with deeper emissions cuts and with hydrogen diffusion, withmost hydrogen produced post-2040 being blue. Finally, the multi-model exercise has highlighted benefitsfrom deeper decarbonisation in terms of energy security and jobs, and moderate to high renewablesdominatedinvestment needs.