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2021
Conference Paper
Titel
The use of FATE for illuminating disruptions
Abstract
FATE is a new method developed through research conducted by the NATO Systems Analysis Studies Research Task Group 123 (NATO SAS-123). FATE is the acronym for Futures Assessed alongside socio Technical Evolutions. The method was developed to anticipate the evolution of technologies with the potential to be disruptive in the context of social factors that drive or retard their diffusion. FATE is achieved systematically by examining technologies as a part of a socio-technical system (STS); additionally, it is undertaken in relation to pre-composed descriptions of 'states of the world' in the future or future scenarios. It is our belief that this is a unique, first of its kind, operational research method, which analyses socio-technical evolutions of emerging or disruptive technologies relative to future scenarios. FATE is a tool that facilitates assessment of the uncertainties associated with social changes that influence technological advancement and adoption in an emerging and complex future. Outputs of FATE serve to inform decision-makers in a holistic fashion on multiple future scenarios. Several STSs were evaluated for their possible implications on defence and security. The results from one of the trials of FATE held at the Defence Science & Technology Laboratory (Dstl) UK will be shared using measures such as the disruption calculus.
Author(s)