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The International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics and the Significance of it's Decade-Long Projections

: Baliozian, P.; Tepner, S.; Fischer, M.; Trube, J.; Herritsch, S.; Gensowski, K.; Clement, F.; Nold, S.; Preu, R.

Fulltext urn:nbn:de:0011-n-6181699 (2.2 MByte PDF)
MD5 Fingerprint: 0acf316362f289619eb4984eecbe8eff
Created on: 11.12.2020

Poster urn:nbn:de:0011-n-618169-16 (826 KByte PDF)
MD5 Fingerprint: 827602f43ab1eb87ff5ed2b381fdca01
Created on: 16.2.2021

Pearsall, Nicola (ed.):
37th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition, EU PVSEC 2020 : 07-11 September 2020, Online Conference
München: WIP, 2020
ISBN: 3-936338-73-6
European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition (EU PVSEC) <37, 2020, Online>
Conference Paper, Electronic Publication
Fraunhofer ISE ()
Photovoltaik; Silicium-Photovoltaik; Technologiebewertung

The International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) is a leading roadmap in the PV community. Ever since its first edition has been published in 2010, the ITRPV has succeeded to provide the technology projections in crystalline silicon PV technology covering a wide scope in the PV value chain. The projection data obtained from contributing experts and institutions are processed and published by the German Mechanical Engineering Industry Association (VDMA). In this paper, the projection accuracy of each of eight frequently reported projected topics is studied. The projected topics include: (a) multicrystalline silicon (mc-Si) wafer thickness, (b) mc-Si ingot mass, (c) bulk recombination current density, (d) emitter sheet resistance, (e) finger width, (f) silver amount per cell, (g) screen printing throughput rate, in addition (h) the market share of half cells is studied. The method includes the calculation of the deviation of each year’s projection from the reference value for each of the chosen topics. Projection absolute percentage deviations (PAPD) are calculated as the time-dependent projection accuracy measure. Based on this approach, finger width projections show the highest accuracy by having a PAPD as a function of time accuracy slope of (1.5 ± 0.1) %/year. Half cells’ market share is the least accurately projected topic featuring a PAPD accuracy slope as a function of time to be (8.1 ± 0.2) %/year. Results of the accuracy study (results of the “past”) provide insights for future expected values.