Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft

Publica

Hier finden Sie wissenschaftliche Publikationen aus den Fraunhofer-Instituten.

Machine Learning on EPEX Order Books: Insights and Forecasts

 
: Schnürch, Simon; Wagner, Andreas

:
Fulltext ()

Online im WWW, 2019, arXiv:1906.06248, 14 pp.
English
Report, Electronic Publication
Fraunhofer ITWM ()

Abstract
This paper employs machine learning algorithms to forecast German electricity spot market prices. The forecasts utilize in particular bid and ask order book data from the spot market but also fundamental market data like renewable infeed and expected demand. Appropriate feature extraction for the order book data is developed. Using cross-validation to optimise hyperparameters, neural networks and random forests are proposed and compared to statistical reference models. The machine learning models outperform traditional approaches.

: http://publica.fraunhofer.de/documents/N-593333.html