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2019
Paper (Preprint, Research Paper, Review Paper, White Paper, etc.)
Titel
Machine Learning on EPEX Order Books: Insights and Forecasts
Titel Supplements
Published on arXiv
Abstract
This paper employs machine learning algorithms to forecast German electricity spot market prices. The forecasts utilize in particular bid and ask order book data from the spot market but also fundamental market data like renewable infeed and expected demand. Appropriate feature extraction for the order book data is developed. Using cross-validation to optimise hyperparameters, neural networks and random forests are proposed and compared to statistical reference models. The machine learning models outperform traditional approaches.