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Exploratory modelling of transitions

An emerging approach for coping with uncertainties in transitions research
: Moallemi, Enayat A.; Haan, Fjalar J. de; Köhler, Jonathan

Moallemi, E.A.:
Modelling transitions: Virtues, vices, visions of the future
London: Routledge, 2020 (Routledge Studies in Sustainability Transitions)
ISBN: 978-0-367-17406-4
ISBN: 978-0-429-05657-4
ISBN: 978-0-429-57877-9
Book Article
Fraunhofer ISI ()

Transitions to sustainability involve complex interactions and non-linear dynamics. Capturing these implies the need to move beyond the established approaches to modelling innovation for sustainability. This chapter summarises some of the innovative approaches for doing so that have been explored by the (sub-)community of transition modellers. Different research objectives and modelling approaches are briefly reviewed. Then three stylised strategies for developing transition models are identified and compared by positioning them along three dimensions: their scope, the emphasis they place on depicting social aspects and their use of widely accepted (formal) theories and assumptions. Transitions models so far can be identified as ‘customised’, ‘modified’ or ‘partial’ models of transitions.