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Global electric car market deployment considering endogenous battery price development

: Heitel, Stephanie; Seddig, Katrin; Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J.; Jochem, Patrick


Junginger, Martin (Ed.):
Technological learning in the transition to a low-carbon energy system : Conceptual issues, empirical findings, and use in energy modeling
New York: Academic Press, 2020
ISBN: 978-0-12-818762-3
Book Article
Fraunhofer ISI ()
system dynamics; global EV market development; model coupling; sensitivity analysis of learning rates and battery capacities

Electric road vehicles are a promising strategy to reduce CO2 emissions and air pollutants. Their market penetration depends on several factors including the vehicle price relative to conventional technologies and the electric range. This chapter analyses the impact of battery price developments on global electric car sales. To simulate battery prices based on global learning, the two system dynamics models ASTRA (Europe) and TE3 (key non-European markets) are coupled, covering together all major car markets. Experience curves are endogenously implemented for battery, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell electric cars. Sensitivity analyses of learning rates for batteries and of battery capacities are conducted to investigate their impact on the market share of electric vehicles. As a core result, it turns out that battery prices, which rely strongly on the learning rate, have a strong impact on global electric car sales. This effect is even stronger than many market inducing policy measures.