Hygrothermal risk analysis of recently constructed timber buildings exposed to outdoor climate changes by the end of the century in Germany

Scientific evidence predicts significant climate changes in the future and the world faces warmer days with extreme precipitation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of predicted climate changes until 2100 on the hygrothermal behavior of well-insulated residential timber buildings are being constructed recently in Germany according to the new low and zero energy standards. Considering the facts that wood and timber constructions are sensitive to moisture and moisture changes and these buildings should have a service life of 50 to 100 years, the hygrothermal performance of several exterior wall assemblies has been analyzed by means of coupled heat and moisture transfer numerical model in this period. Predicted climate data -by the end of the century- for several cities in different Germany's hygrothermal regions, extracted from climate service centers' databases and applied as an outdoor condition. The article discusses the response of a number of buildings envelops exposed to these exterior environments. Accordingly, critical aspects of moisture performance regarding the risk of mold growth and fungal decay were in each assembly analyzed. In this regard, relevant solutions were suggested aiming construction of more resilient timber structures to climate changes.