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Impact of Uncertainties of Fundamental Models on Simulated Silicon Solar Cell Efficiencies

: Wasmer, S.; Fell, A.; Greulich, J.M.


Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers -IEEE-:
IEEE 7th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion, WCPEC 2018 : A Joint Conference of 45th IEEE PVSC, 28th PVSEC & 34th EU PVSEC, 10-15 June 2018, Waikoloa Village, HI, USA
Piscataway, NJ: IEEE, 2018
ISBN: 978-1-5386-8529-7
ISBN: 978-1-5386-8530-3
World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion (WCPEC) <7, 2018, Waikoloa/Hawaii>
Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC) <45, 2018, Waikoloa/Hawaii>
Photovoltaic Science and Engineering Conference (PVSEC) <28, 2018, Waikoloa/Hawaii>
European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition (EU PVSEC) <34, 2018, Waikoloa/Hawaii>
Conference Paper
Fraunhofer ISE ()
Photovoltaik; Silicium-Photovoltaik; Charakterisierung von Prozess- und Silicium-Materialien; Herstellung und Analyse von hocheffizienten Solarzellen; modeling; simulation; cell; silicon; analysis

We determine the uncertainties on simulated efficiencies of silicon solar cells due to uncertainties of the fundamental physical models. For this end, we refit well-known models of numerical device simulations in order to acquire the uncertainties of the model parameters from the underlying measurement data. In a metamodeling and Monte Carlo simulation study, we then deduce how these propagate to the simulated solar cell efficiency. This is done for 150 μm thick 1 Ωcm p-type standard and advanced silicon passivated emitter and rear cells (PERC) and for the limiting efficiency of silicon solar cells. We find uncertainties given by one standard deviation of 0.021% abs for usual PERC solar cells and 0.068% abs in case of the limiting efficiency. In a variance based sensitivity analysis, we find the uncertainties of the model parameters of the Auger recombination and the minority charge carrier mobility to contribute the most to the efficiency uncertainty. Besides these, we determine comparably large efficiency discrepancies of up to 0.6% abs for the two most prominent bandgap narrowing models, highlighting the necessity of further research on this topic.