Self-consumption of solar electricity - Modelling profitability and market diffusion of photovoltaics and battery systems in the residental sector

The transformation of the energy system includes increasingly active market participation by formerly passive consumers via the installation of photovoltaic (PV) systems for decentralized production and on-site consumption of electricity, so-called self-consumption. For a holistic understanding of the market diffusion of PV + battery systems for self-consumption a technology diffusion model is developed that considers economic, behavioural and technological market drivers. Technical restrictions of PV production and flexible electricity consumption as well as sociological data on consumer behaviour and preferences are included. Using 415 real-world household electricity consumption profiles, as well as electric vehicle charging and heat pump operation profiles to determine the system configuration that will optimize individual profitability, the developed method allows to attain a profound knowledge on the preconditions for market formation and development, and to assess the potential of PV self-consumption.