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Multi-period planning of distribution grid reinforcements under uncertainty about future penetration of photovoltaic systems

: Dimitrov, I.; Gust, G.; Brandt, T.; Biener, W.; Neumann, D.


Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers -IEEE-:
IEEE International Energy Conference, ENERGYCON 2018 : 3-7 June 2018, Limassol, Cyprus
Piscataway, NJ: IEEE, 2018
ISBN: 978-1-5386-3669-5
ISBN: 978-1-5386-1283-5
International Energy Conference (ENERGYCON) <2018, Limassol>
Conference Paper
Fraunhofer ISE ()

The policy transition towards renewable sources of energy generation has triggered a proliferation of small, independent, and decentralized power plants such as solar PV panels owned by households. This presents network operators with challenges regarding the maintenance and expansion of low-voltage distribution grids. We model multi-period planning of grid reinforcement on the basis of three investment strategies: a purely reactive strategy that disregards any information about the future, a proactive strategy that requires only a probability distribution of future distributed generation, and a hypothetical strategy assuming perfect information. Simulations show that 75% of the time the proactive strategy achieves equal or lower total reinforcement cost than the reactive strategy, which can be regarded as the industry standard. On average, it yields about 30% of theoretically possible savings. The results are robust to changing simulation parameters, including PV penetration levels.