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Are probabilistic methods a way to get rid of fudge factors?

 
: Adams, R.D.; Albiez, M.; Correia, J.R.; Tannert, T.; Fecht, Simon; Vallée, Till

12th European Adhesion Conference and 4th Luso-Brazilian Conference on Adhesion and Adhesives 2018. Book of Abstracts : 5-7 September 2018, Lisbon, Portugal
Lisbon: Congress Centre of Instituto Superior Tecnico, 2018
ISBN: 9789898927248
pp.85
European Adhesion Conference (EURADH) <12, 2018, Lisbon>
Luso-Brazilian Conference on Adhesion and Adhesives <4, 2018, Lisbon>
English
Abstract
Fraunhofer IFAM ()

Abstract
There are specific reasons that make the dimensioning of adhesively bonded joint sparticularly arduous; the sharp stress peaks at the end of the overlaps are certainly the most critical one. Over the last decades, several techniques have been developed to overcome associated problems, which are particularly critical in conjunction with material brittleness. However, there is no denying that most of them rely in one way or another on ad hocquantities or fudge factors introduced into the calculation, formula or model in order to make their results fit experimental observations or analytical predictions. In contrast to these models, that at one level or another introduce the above mentioned parameters, the still generally discarded probabilistic approach allows overcoming a series of limitations regarding the dimensioning of adhesively bonded joints. This article aims at shedding some light on the concepts behind probabilistic methods, presents how they can be implemented in practical design procedures for adhesively bonded joints, and summarizes a series of examples of joint capacity predictions covering a wide range of relevant engineering materials [1–2].

: http://publica.fraunhofer.de/documents/N-515365.html