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A bayesian approach assessing the availability of technical systems under different operating conditions throughout their life cycle

: Mannuß, O.; Schneider, S.; Kempf, M.; Westkämper, E.

Butala, P. ; International Institution for Production Engineering Research -CIRP-, Paris; University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering:
The morphology of innovative manufacturing systems : 39th CIRP International Seminar on Manufacturing Systems, Ljubljana, June 7th-9th, 2006
Ljubljana, Slowenien, 2006
ISBN: 961-6536-09-5
International Seminar on Manufacturing Systems <39, 2006, Ljubljana>
Conference Paper
Fraunhofer IPA ()
Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie; Life Cycle Management (LCM); maintenance; reliability; Bayesian network; Instandhaltung; Zuverlässigkeit

This paper introduces a life-cycle spanning availability model for manufacturing systems. In addition to failure observations in the operation phase, it allows to use the availability predictions derived during the design phase as initial values. Although failures in the early phase of operation are usually rare, the model offers the engineer a trustworthy availability statement throughout the usage time of the manufacturing system. It can thus be used to support decisions on whether to carry out optimizing efforts regarding preventive and corrective maintenance actions or not.