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The market value of renewable electricity - which factors really matter?

: Winkler, Jenny; Pudlik, Martin; Ragwitz, Mario; Pfluger, Benjamin


Applied energy 184 (2016), pp.464-481
ISSN: 0306-2619
ISSN: 1872-9118
Journal Article
Fraunhofer ISI ()
renewable electricity; market value; system flexibility

The development of renewable energy technologies, their future market integration, and support scheme design depends crucially on the market value of electricity from renewable sources. The literature shows that there are many factors that potentially influence these market values. However, existing studies are limited in mostly just analyzing the influence of these factors individually or at most the combined effects of only two factors. In this study, a large number of scenarios for possible future electricity systems and the resulting market values are calculated. Results are assessed using descriptive statistics and regression analysis to identify the most important factors influencing market values. Therefore, we are able to quantitatively analyze the individual impacts of a complex combination of flexibility options, which can facilitate more informed strategies by policy markers, regulators, and market participants regarding system flexibility options. We show here that the development of CO2 and gas prices, as well as the conventional capacity mix is crucial for the development of renewable electricity market values. System flexibility including must-run requirements, heat grids and electric mobility become relevant at higher technology-specific market shares for both photovoltaics and onshore wind. Storage only influences photovoltaics market values even though assumed storage capacities and volume are high.