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Towards modelling of innovation systems: An integrated TIS-MLP approach for wind turbines

: Walz, Rainer; Köhler, Jonathan; Lerch, Christian

Fulltext urn:nbn:de:0011-n-3829325 (1.1 MByte PDF)
MD5 Fingerprint: 139ca3eea05bcb3b0d7d97dd7c87e3b7
Created on: 2.4.2016

Karlsruhe: Fraunhofer ISI, 2016, 33 pp.
Fraunhofer ISI Discussion Papers Innovation Systems and Policy Analysis, 50
Report, Electronic Publication
Fraunhofer ISI ()

Meeting sustainability challenges requires not only innovations but also transitions towards sustainability paths. Studies which use technological innovation systems and multi-level-perspective approaches show that the development of innovation systems is a complex process, with many direct and indirect interdependencies of the different variables. The paper looks into the feasibility to support such analysis with system dynamics models. It is analysed how a combined TIS-MLP approach could form the conceptual basis for analysing the dynamics which drives the development of the system to be modelled. The feasibility of such a concept is further investigated by implementing it for China and Germany using wind energy as a case study. In order to develop a perspective how to build the model in technical terms, the dynamics of the innovation systems is translated in software based causal loop diagrams. In addition to methodological insights about the feasibility of modelling, the paper also yields insights into differences and similarities in the drivers of system dynamics in both countries. Furthermore, general conclusions for the potential of regime shift in countries catching up and the relation to leapfrogging are drawn. Thus, the paper augments more general conceptual advances with an evidence based case study and extends theoretical analysis towards empirical modelling.