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A contribution to the load forecast of price elastic consumption behaviour

 
: Klaiber, Stefan; Bretschneider, Peter; Waczowicz, Simon; Mikut, Ralf; Konotop, Irina; Westermann, Dirk

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Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers -IEEE-; Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers -IEEE-, Power & Energy Society -PES-:
IEEE PowerTech Eindhoven 2015 : June 29 - July 2, 2015, Eindhoven
Piscataway, NJ: IEEE, 2015
ISBN: 978-1-4799-7695-9 (Print)
ISBN: 978-1-4799-7692-8 (USB)
ISBN: 978-1-4799-7693-5 (Online)
pp.1820-1825
PowerTech Conference <2015, Eindhoven>
English
Conference Paper
Fraunhofer IOSB ()
demand forecasting; demand response; consumer behaviour; time series analysis

Abstract
By influencing the demand side by means of price signals (Demand Response) additional flexibility potential in electric supply systems can be provided. However, by influencing the demand side typical consumption patterns of previously unaffected consumers are changed. This will lead to increasing uncertainty in load forecasting. This paper deals with the forecast of load time series in consideration of price-based consumption influence. Additional requirements for load forecasting methods resulting from the price elastic consumption behaviour are analysed in this paper. Furthermore, the model residuals of established model approaches will be analysed to explain the disturbance characteristic caused by the price elasticity. Finally, the impact of the model residuals on the load forecast was investigated.

: http://publica.fraunhofer.de/documents/N-372328.html