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Ex-ante estimation of the EU Ecodesign Directive's impact on the long-term electricity demand of the tertiary sector

: Jakob, Martin; Catenazzi, Giacomo; Fleiter, Tobias

Lindström, T. ; European Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy -ECEEE-, Paris:
Rethink, renew, restart. eceee 2013 Summer Study. Proceedings : 3-8 June 2013, Belambra Les Criques, Toulon/Hyères, France
Stockholm: ECEEE, 2013
ISBN: 978-91-980482-2-3 (Print)
ISBN: 978-91-980482-3-0 (Online)
European Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ECEEE Summer Study) <2013, Toulon>
Conference Paper
Fraunhofer ISI ()
tertiary sector; electricity; demand analysis; policy measures; model; ecodesign directive

Ex-ante evaluation is important to effectively design policy measures. The paper addresses the electricity demand of the tertiary sector in Europe which is one of most strongly growing. On the EU-level, a number of policies are implemented to improve energy efficiency also in the tertiary sector. Among such measures are the recently adopted Energy Efficiency Directive, the Ecodesign Directive (EDD) and the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD). In this paper, we aim to analyse the impact of such and additional policies using comparative scenario analysis. Different scenarios are characterized by different levels of policy measures and programmes. Being one of the most important policy options for electricity demand, we will particularly focus on the EDD and its impact. For the scenario analysis, we use the techno-economic bottom-up model FORECAST. The model differentiates between 29 countries, 8 sub-sectors and 15 building and user related energy-services such as lighting in buildings, street lighting, electric heating, ventilation and cooling, refrigeration, cooking, laundry, ICT devices and data centres with servers. Electricity demand is obtained through physical drivers and specific energy consumption indicators. The latter consist of technical information such as installed power, energy demand per unit of driver, and utilisation rates such as full load hours. Energy-efficiency measures aim at reducing both installed power and utilization rates and cover technologies and practices. As the model also considers growing drivers it allows developing a comprehensive picture of the net electricity demand development. Among such drivers is the number of employees or the floor area, or more specific energy service drivers such as equipment or diffusion rates (e.g. share of cooled floor area, no. of computers per employee). Results show that electricity demand in the EU tertiary sector will continue to grow in the coming years. However, the policies currently implemented and foreseen for implementation will mitigate this effect to a large extent and demand tends to stabilize in the long term, particularly if the EDD is consequently implemented and enforced based on the least lifecycle cost approach and if it is accompanied by additional soft policies to address energy-efficiency measures (EEMs), such as system optimization or behavioural measures. Moreover energy services not covered by the EDD should be included in the future.