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The Turkish energy efficiency plan - an ex-ante assessment of the residential sector

: Elsland, Rainer; Divrak, Can; Fleiter, Tobias

Fulltext (PDF; )

Trenev, G. ; Europäische Gemeinschaften -EG-:
7th International Conference Energy Efficiency in Domestic Appliances and Lighting, EEDAL 2013. Proceedings : 11 - 13 September 2013, in Coimbra, Portugal
Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2014 (EUR 26660)
ISBN: 978-92-79-38406-6
International Conference on Energy Efficiency in Domestic Appliances and Lighting (EEDAL) <7, 2013, Coimbra>
Conference Paper, Electronic Publication
Fraunhofer ISI ()

The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of the Strategic Energy-Efficiency Plan (SEEP) on residential energy demand in Turkey until 2030. For this purpose, three different explorative scenarios have been developed: a reference scenario (REF-S); a scenario based on the SEEP (SEEP-S) and a scenario which includes even more ambitious policies (HiEff-S). The scenarios are being compared in terms of energy demand and allow conclusions about the potential impact of the policy packages. For the analysis, a detailed bottom-up modelling approach is applied. The results show that the final energy demand decreases in all scenarios from about 944 PJ in 2008 to 851 PJ (REF-S), 736 PJ (SEEP-S) and 659 PJ (HiEff-S) in 2030. The decreasing demand even in the REF-S reflects a structural break with the past and mainly comes from the building sector and is driven by a very high demolition rate and a very low level of efficiency in the existing building stock. This drastic policy induces a fast building turnover, which is a window of opportunity from an energy efficiency point of view - which, however, is not taken into account by current legislation and not particularly addressed in the SEEP. Both the share of electricity but also the total demand in all scenarios is increasing - mainly driven by the growing ownership of various electric appliances. The SEEP-S will achieve 10 TWh of savings in 2030 compared to the REF-S which mainly comes from more ambitious appliance and lighting standards. Generally, the scenarios assumed a relatively high rate of compliance and a strong enforcement of policies, which might not be the case in reality (as already indicated by the observed slow progress of building certification by 2013 which is running far behind schedule).