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Model for electric load profiles with high time resolution for German households

: Fischer, D.; Härtl, A.; Wille-Haussmann, B.


Energy and buildings 92 (2015), pp.170-179
ISSN: 0378-7788
Journal Article
Fraunhofer ISE ()
Elektrische Energiesysteme; Systemintegration und Netze - Strom; Wärme; Gas; Elektrische Verteilnetze und Betriebsmittel

Approximately 27% of the European energy consumption is caused by the domestic sector, where 19% ofthe end use energy demand is caused by electric devices. To investigate the factors at play, a stochasticbottom-up model for the generation of electric load profiles is introduced in this paper. The model isdesigned for investigating the effects of occupant behaviour, appliance stock and efficiency on the electricload profile of an individual household. For each activity of a person in the household, an electric applianceis used, and its electricity consumption is linked to measured electric load traces with a time resolutionof 10 s. Probability distributions are incorporated for when and how often an appliance is operated.Duration of operation is given as probability density conditional on the start time. Shared use of anappliance by multiple persons is included in the model. Seasonal effects are considered by using changingprobability sets during the course of the year. For validation, seven subgroups, which reflect typicalhousehold configurations, were formed and tested against measured field data from 430 households in9 different cities across Germany. The results showed an accuracy of 91% and a correlation of up to 0.98.