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The probability of long phases of very high and low wind power feed-in residual load

: Plötz, Patrick; Michaelis, Julia

IAEE Online Conference Proceedings Database (2014), 16 pp.
European Energy Conference <14, 2014, Rome>
Conference Paper
Fraunhofer ISI ()
wind power; calm; extreme value statistics; energy system analysis

Long phases of very low or high wind power are a potential thread to future energy systems with a high share of renewable energies. A frequent occurrence of these and similar situations would imply an increased need for energy storage or controllable power capacities in order to cover energy demand at any time in future energy systems or in
the case of very high feed-in a very high grid load. Furthermore, current energy system research analyses the future effect of high renewable feed-in using historical weather or renewable energy feed-in time series data. However, an understanding of the representativeness of these time series with respect to long phases of low or high wind speeds is still limited apart from average wind speeds and associated power feed-in. In particular the frequency and duration of extreme events such as very long periods of low or high wind speeds and low renewable feed-in have not been analysed in detail yet. We use wind power feed-in data for seven years from Germany from 2006 - 2012 as time series with an hourly resolution. We find long calms of wind power feed-in of more than one week duration occur quite frequently and periods of more than ten days every 25 years are consistent with the data, a one-hundred-year calm in wind power feed-in could last for almost two weeks. We find the average duration of low wind power feed-in phase to grow linearly with the threshold: Phases with a wind power feed-in of less than two percent of installed power are typically four hours long and phases with less than five percent feed-in are on average seven hours long. However, a period of wind power feed-in below eight percent of installed power that lasts one week occurs every two years and a period of more than ten days occurs every ten years. Furthermore, residual load smaller than 35 GW (\'19 3% quantile)was about a whole day long and that up to three days are consistent with the data. For a threshold of 49 GW (\'19 32% quantile), several days with residual load below that threshold have been observed. Our results show that long phases of low wind power occur more frequently than commonly expected and that individual years differ in the duration of wind power feed-in phases.