Analysis of structural changes of the load profiles of the German residential sector due to decentralized electricity generation and e-mobility

In this paper, a bottom-up energy demand model is applied to a scenario-based analysis of the load profiles of the German residential sector until the year 2040. This analysis takes into account the increasing diffusion of e-mobility and decentralized electricity generation and addresses questions such as: How much demand has to be met by the electricity supply system and what kind of structural changes in the load profile are to be expected. In order to assess the maximum contribution of decentralized electricity generation, a weekday in summer was chosen for the analysis. Assessing the future residential electricity demand on an hourly basis clearly depicts an increased volatility due to the shift in demand from night-time to daytime hours which is mainly caused by the greater number of ICT appliances. Furthermore, electric vehicles lead to a significant increase in the evening demand peaks. At the same time, electricity generation from photovoltaic sources can entirely compensate this additional demand by e-mobility, if decentralized electricity generation can be matched with the electricity demand via demand-side-management (DSM) or storage devices.