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System-based feedback analysis of E-mobility diffusion in China

: Kühn, André; Glöser, Simon

Fulltext urn:nbn:de:0011-n-2347691 (169 KByte PDF)
MD5 Fingerprint: 2a39a782aced034030073e0d77a67e6d
Created on: 13.4.2013

Poster urn:nbn:de:0011-n-234769-12 (469 KByte PDF)
MD5 Fingerprint: 6042604dd66a75483f5ab97153c74298
Created on: 13.4.2013

System Dynamics Society, Albany:
30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 2012. Online conference proceedings : St. Gallen, Switzerland; July 22-26, 2012
Albany, N.Y.: The System Dynamics Society, 2012
ISBN: 978-1-935056-10-2
ISBN: 978-1-935056-09-6 (Print)
18 pp.
System Dynamics Society (International Conference) <30, 2012, St. Gallen>
Conference Paper, Electronic Publication
Fraunhofer ISI ()
E-Mobility; battery technology; raw material; cobalt; sustainability; alternative drives; alternative fuels

In the passenger car sector purchasing decisions are driven by economic factors and acceptance. Based on cost analysis, the factors which can be dedicated to different technologies are fuel costs and purchase price. The decision to buy a new car is always accompanied by comparing the costs of different alternatives. This leads to a compilation of costs and acceptance for each technology in terms of negative utility.
In this study the development of the global automotive market with a focus on China as the most important emerging market is analyzed considering both the diffusion of alternative drives and the development of car segments.
The decision process on a micro level is solved by a Logit-Model. The realization within a system dynamics model allows the modeling of feedback loops.
As opposed to earlier studies on future automotive markets in which the availability of key raw materials for alternative drives was not taken into account, the model presented in this paper gives an example of how to simulate feedback effects from raw material markets on the diffusion of emerging technologies. For this purpose, taking cobalt as an example, the effect of increasing battery production on the demand for raw materials and raw material pricing is analyzed including the feedback of higher battery prices on the development of electro mobility. This is realized by simulating two scenarios with and without the raw material feedback loop and a subsequent comparison of the results.