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Bridging macroeconomic and bottom up energy models - the case of efficiency in industry

: Herbst, Andrea; Reitze, Felix; Toro, Felipe; Jochem, Eberhard

Fulltext urn:nbn:de:0011-n-2201852 (369 KByte PDF)
MD5 Fingerprint: 9f6e3ca24a13b0b567dbf5b8e207eb88
Created on: 29.11.2012

European Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy -ECEEE-, Paris:
Industry: A third of Europe's Energy Use. ECEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Industry 2012 : Papendal Hotel and Conference Centre, Arnhem, The Netherlands, 11-14 September 2012
Stockholm: ECEEE, 2012
European Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ECEEE Summer Study) <2012, Arnhem>
Conference Paper, Electronic Publication
Fraunhofer ISI ()
bottom-up; Top-Down; hybrid; modelling; efficiency; transformation of economic and demographic drivers; structural change

Energy demand and supply projections for a country are generally based on one of two types of models: macroeconomic models or bottom-up models for several sectors. Both types of models are essential for future energy policy design and ex ante evaluation of energy and material efficiency strategies. However, both types have their strengths and limitations. The solution to this dilemma is to link both model types and run them iteratively in order to benefit from their strengths and advantages and avoid their limitations. This paper focuses on one essential element of a hybrid energy model system: the data transformation of industrial production data from a macroeconomic model to an industrial sectoral bottom up model of an existing hybrid energy model system. Making use of this 'transformation module', the information of the macro model is converted into physical units as input for the bottom-up models operating as a "hard-link" between the two model types. This paper reports on energy-intensive industries such as metal production, pulp, paper, and printing, or non-metallic minerals, taking into account material efficiency improvements as well as material substitution and, hence, this aspect of indirect energy efficiency improvements.