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Transforming the European energy system

: Eskeland, G.S.; Criqui, P.; Neufeldt, H.; Eichhammer, W.; Held, A.; Schade, W.

Hulme, M.:
Making climate change work for us : European perspectives on adaptation and mitigation strategies
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010
ISBN: 978-0-521-11941-2
ISBN: 0-521-11941-3
Book Article
Fraunhofer ISI ()

This chapter looks at ways in which the European energy system can be transformed to meet the 2°C target. For this, we draw on ADAM research that combines results from detailed bottom-up technology and economy-wide top-down modelling approaches to draw a broad-brush picture on Europe's future energy system for a high ('adaptation') and low ('mitigation') temperature increase world. Based on common assumptions of income growth and population development in Europe, we provide an integrated view of the energy system that includes all energy-using and primary-energy-converting sectors. The differentiation between adaptation and mitigation scenarios allows us to specify the costs and technological transitions needed to attain the 2°C target, as well as the avoided adaptation costs. In the 'adaptation scenario', climate impacts in the energy system become more important towards the middle of the century, In the 'mitigation scenario', costs of achieving the target in the first decades will be modest through combining energy efficiency improvements, increasing use of renewables and gas, and a decline in energy intensive manufacturing. However, more challenging efforts towards farreaching technological change will be necessary to reach not only the European target of 2020, but also the overall goal of limiting global temperature increase to 2°C by the end of this century. Benefits of early emphasis on technological change include: (i) preparing for further emission reductions throughout the middle of the century both in Europe and in the rest of the world, and (ii) increased energy supply security for Europe.